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PIMCO: 5 key policy areas will test markets over the next 5 years
In their latest global economic and market outlook, Pimco analysts detail the ways in which trade, geopolitics, and monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policy will test the markets over the next three to five years.
Pimco analysts Richard Clarida, Andrew Balls, and Daniel Ivascyn cite “insecure stability” as a key factor that will affect policy decisions around the world.
“Over our five-year secular horizon we believe that the global economy will be ‘driving without a spare tire’ as the Fed raises rates and shrinks its balance sheet,” write the Pimco Analysts, “and that any pivot to fiscal policy that materializes will be unlikely by itself to boost global growth prospects in a sustainable way.”
They believe that any policy shifts will “coincide and collide” with the risk of recession, which they estimate to be around 70% over the next 5 years.
Below are the slides from their presentation to clients.
Evolution of PIMCO’s secular views
How have the risks we saw in May 2016 changed? Our standard 2016 forum slide with today’s Big Questions
Consensus sees a modest upswing in global growth to the Great Moderation trend of 3.7%
Consensus sees inflation in advanced economies picking up to 2% but falling short of Great Moderation trend of 2.7%
New Neutral destination for Fed Funds
A welcome “cyclical tailwind” for a global expansions about to enter its ninth year. Or is this secular shift to a new paradigm?
Bloated central bank balance sheets and negative policy rates. The beginning of the end for unconventional monetary policy or is there “no way out?”
China has the will but does it still have the wallet to afford to leverage its way to prosperity?
What global deleveraging?
Brexit = risk on; President Macron…all is well…or is “redenomination” a risk in a Europe possibly without Merkel and Draghi?
BOE estimates of drivers of decline in world real interest rates
Historic frequency of a U.S. recession over five year periods has been 70%
95 months into a US economic expansion yet global growth remains below historical averages
Despite unprecedented central bank interference developed economy inflation remains well below historical average
Pivot away from unconventional monetary policy: Fed Balance Sheet Normalization, but less than many think
Pivot on US trade policy: Focus on bilateral deals and aggressive use of existing authority within World Trade Organization
In a world of insecure stability, investors must prepare for five key pivots that will test markets
Read more stories on Business Insider, Malaysian edition of the world’s fastest-growing business and technology news website.
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